Gold futures edged higher in a holiday-thinned trade on Thursday with many of the major players on the sidelines until after the New Year’s holiday. It was a light news day, but the headlines were mostly supportive. Investors remained optimistic over U.S. stimulus and the U.S. Dollar was mostly lower after Britain clinched a trade deal with the European Union, driving up demand for dollar-denominated gold.
On Thursday, February Comex gold futures are trading $1882.60, up $4.50 or +0.24%.
President Trump is generating a buzz in the market with his demand to increase the size of the stimulus package passed earlier in the week, but gold traders seem to be shrugging off the news. Investors largely brushed off reports that U.S. lawmakers blocked attempts to alter a $2.3 trillion coronavirus aid and government spending package.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1912.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a move through $1820.00.
The minor trend is also up, but momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside with the formation of a potentially bearish closing price reversal top on December 21.
A trade through $1859.00 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction or even a change in trend if $1820.00 is violated.
Besides the below-average volume, this week’s choppy price action has been fueled by a series of retracement levels.
The short-term range is $1973.30 to $1767.20. The market has been straddling its retracement zone at $1870.30 to $1894.60. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.
The minor range is $1820.00 to $1912.00. Its retracement zone at $1866.00 to $1855.10 is additional support. This zone stopped the selling on Monday.
Another short-term range is $1767.20 to $1912.00. Its retracement zone at $1839.60 to $1822.50 is the last retracement zone support before the main bottom at $1820.00.
Near-Term Outlook
The recent price action suggests the near-term direction of the February Comex gold market will be determined by trader reaction to the retracement zone at $1870.30 to $1894.60.
Look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $1894.60 and a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under $1870.30.
The way of least resistance is to the upside with $1912.00 a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
A move under $1870.30 could be a little labored with potential support levels lined up at $1855.10, $1839.60 and $1822.50.